What is the chance of a new lockdown in the UK?

25 October 2021 - Doctors in the UK are pressurising the government to implement its winter contingency plan (Plan B) amid rising Covid-19 cases. Further concerns are surfacing around the risk of a new lockdown and the potential of a 'Plan C', which would ban household mixing over Christmas.

However, the Health Minister, Edward Agar, has denied the existence of a Plan C and emphasised that the NHS is not under unsustainable pressure, which would justify the implementation of restriction measures. Agar highlighted that there are about 95 000 NHS beds across the UK, of which Covid-19 patients occupy 7 000, and 6 000 are empty. Number Ten have said that they are monitoring the situation and won't hesitate to act if necessary.

With this discussion increasing, WageIndicator has researched and analysed Covid-19 data. We looked at data with the same period last year to see how current figures compare to when the government decided to have a national lockdown.

Regarding the number of cases reported, the data shows that on 19 October 2021, there were 52 009 new cases reported with a seven-day average rate of 47 414.7. In comparison, on this day in 2020, there were 18 804 new cases with a seven-day average of 19 552.6. Therefore, this year, the case average for the week leading up to 19 October is almost two and a half times more than in 2020.   

Hospital data important

While this is a major increase, it is more important to look at the data on hospital admissions.  Hospital data shows the pressure the NHS is feeling due to Covid-19. Therefore, a comparison of this data is a more accurate signal of the risk of a new lockdown.

Looking at daily figures of patients admitted to hospitals on 15 October, we see that 935 patients were admitted in 2021, with a seven-day average of 937.3. In comparison, in 2020, there were 1047 patients admitted with a seven-day average of 1000.4. Therefore, while cases have almost tripled, the rate of hospital admissions has seen a 6.3% decrease.

However, although the current rate of patient admissions per day is lower, the number of people in hospitals testing positive is higher. In 2020 there were 6829 patients in the hospital on 18 October, and the seven-day average was 6988.7. In 2021 the total number of patients was 7785, and the seven-day average was 7688.6. This 10

% increase in the daily average number of patients in hospitals signals that the NHS is potentially under more pressure now to find beds than they were in October 2020. However, the fact that the daily patient admission rate is down is also a significant factor in the pressure on the NHS.

A third data set that helps determine the level of the NHS pressure is the rate of Covid-19 patients in ventilator beds. On 18 October 2020, there were 630 patients in ventilator beds, with a seven-day average of 640.7. On the same day in 2021, there were 826 patients in ventilator beds, and the seven-day average was 836.6. Comparing these numbers, we again see an increase in the 2021 figures. Consequently, in the week leading up to 17 October 2021, there were on average 30.5% more patients in ventilator beds than in 2020. This increase again shows the NHS to be under more pressure in 2021 than it was in 2020.

Vaccination programme

Further factors to consider when determining the level of pressure on the NHS is the increase in seasonal flu and general winter pressures due to people being able to socialise more. However, a significant factor in this is the vaccination programme.

A comparison of case rates and hospital admissions highlights the impact of the vaccination programme. In October of 2020, no one was vaccinated. Therefore, there was no way to slow the spread of the virus without implementing a national lockdown. Furthermore, people who got Covid-19 often developed the full effect of the virus. However, in 2021 with over 45 000 000 people double vaccinated and another 4 000 000 having had one dose, the virus's average effect on people has dramatically reduced. 

This article compares the current Covid-19 data to the same period last year to help inform individuals. It highlights the changes in the rates so that individuals can form their own opinion of the current risk of a further lockdown. Check out our Covid-19 data centre and take our survey on life and working during the coronavirus pandemic 

Sources 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58990658